The United States Senate race in Texas is predicted to be incredibly close, a major surprise in a state where no Democrat has been elected to a statewide office in over 30 years.
The two most prominent candidates in the Democratic primary, held on Mar. 3, were Jasmine Crockett, a U.S. House Representative known for her unfiltered criticisms of MAGA Republicans, and James Talarico, a Texas House Representative and former teacher.
Going into the primary election, most polls predicted a close race within the margin of error, reflecting both candidates’ popularity and strong support bases. The Associated Press (AP) called the race early the next day, with Talarico narrowly winning with 52.5% of the vote to Crockett’s 46.2%.
Crockett officially conceded shortly after, declaring her support for Talarico in the general election: “Texas is primed to turn blue, and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person.”
The Republican primary, held on the same day, included three main candidates: incumbent U.S. senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. House Representative Wesley Hunt. Most polls predicted that no candidate would win a majority of the vote, but that Paxton would receive the most votes.
In a surprise result, Cornyn finished first with 42.0% of the vote, with Paxton on his heels with 40.5%, while Hunt received just 13.5%. Because no candidate won over 50% of the vote, the election went to a May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.
In the months between the primary and runoff, Cornyn took the opportunity to criticize Paxton’s character and record, calling out his recent indictment on charges of felony securities fraud and his impeachment from the office of Attorney General. Paxton, on the other hand, dug into Cornyn’s support for bipartisan gun legislation and his previous criticism of President Donald Trump.
Though Trump has already weighed in on hundreds of Republican primaries in the 2026 cycle, he did not endorse any Republican candidate in the Texas Senate race before the primary. Trump announced the day after the primary that he would be making an endorsement “soon” and reportedly leaned towards Cornyn, according to the Atlantic. However, on May 19, exactly a week before the runoff, Trump officially endorsed Paxton, citing his loyalty to MAGA Republican figures and policies.
Likely as a result of this endorsement, Paxton won the May 26 runoff election in a landslide with 63.5% of the vote to Cornyn’s 36.5%, making Cornyn the first Texas Republican senator to lose his party’s nomination for reelection.
Paxton will face off against Talarico in the Nov. 3 election in what will likely be the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” bolstering pre-runoff polls that showed Talarico tied with or even ahead of Paxton in a head-to-head election.
Though the polls remain too close to predict the results of the election, the fact that Texas has the possibility of going blue speaks to the larger blue wave that’s poised to sweep the nation. With growing dissent against ICE, increasingly high gas prices, and unanswered questions about the Epstein files, Trump and his party have become more unpopular than ever before. But only the midterm elections will reveal whether this unpopularity can translate into concrete change.
